Morning Coffee: JPMorgan revealed the reality of the banking jobs market now. The primary rule for analyst sleeping hours

If you're wondering why you can't find a new banking job now, there are many things to blame. London vacancies are down nearly 80% in 10 years. The market is awash with candidates; banks are waiting for existing people to leave rather than hiring new ones. And to the extent that jobs are being added, they are not in the high volume areas of the recent past.

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JPMorgan's mini-investor presentation yesterday confirmed the sorriness of the situation. Last year, JPMorgan said its headcount changed by circa 0%. Its biggest headcount growth area was its revenue supporting and front office jobs, which were up by 4%. JPMorgan's operations headcount fell by 4%; its support headcount was down by 2% and its technology headcount - once a boom area for hiring - was up by a whisp of 1%. 

JPMorgan didn't break out the number of jobs it has in each of these areas. However, front office jobs are never the most populous. At Deutsche Bank, which publishes its precise headcount numbers each quarter, only 25% of jobs involving the investment bank are in the front office. The rest are support and other jobs, which Deutsche Bank - like JPMorgan - is trying to massage down.

While JPMorgan keeps a tight grip on overall headcount, the Financial Times notes that it's still spending $2bn a week. What's this going on, apart from expensive new banking managing directors (MDs)? Partly, technology. Business Insider observes that JPMorgan plans to spend $20bn on technology this year, an increase of 10% or $1.9bn on 2025.

Yesterday's JPMorgan presentation also elaborated upon how this technology budget is being spent. The biggest chunk overall - $8.8bn - is going to the corporate and investment bank (CIB). $1.2bn of this year's additional budget is going to "products platforms, features and capabilities" across the bank (including machine learning and AI), which in combination also account for 46% of the total tech spending. Inflation accounts for another $0.8bn of this year's extra $1.9bn.

What happened to all the cost savings from AI? There's little sign of this, yet. Last year, JPMorgan said it achieved a mere $150m of "efficiencies" relating to the use of AI in its technology team. Coding improvements from AI are so far only around 10%. In the meantime, JPMorgan is spending heavily on the technology, and probably won't be hiring extra people unless they're the sort that can bring in new clients to generate the revenues that will enable more investment in technology but not technologists. 

Separately, as the cancelled Centerview court case shakedown continues, embers are still being raked as to what might have been.

The FT notes that Kathryn Shiber had been questioning the whole dynamic of bank working hours, and the necessity of being available 24/7. “I would really appreciate if we could strategise how we/I can be more efficient earlier in the day,” she'd asked in an email before being fired by Centerview for insisting upon eight hours sleep. Had the trial gone ahead, this might have been fully debated.

Given that the trial didn't go ahead, junior bankers must instead use another email from the court documents to govern their behaviour. Business Insider notes that while Shiber was an analyst, her associate Timothy Ernst complained that he shouldn't be up working late on his own [while Shiber was asleep]. Let this be a reminder: when you're the analyst, you can only sleep when everyone senior to you has signed off. 

Meanwhile...

JPMorgan says it's a boom quarter for both trading and investment banking. Trading revenues in Q1 could be $10bn for the first time ever. Investment banking fees could rise by the mid-teens. (Bloomberg) 

US banks made $300bn in profits last year. “It’s another year where we have skipped past any credit concerns which to me is remarkable.” (Financial Times) 

It's a terrible time to work in private equity. Distributions as a percentage of net asset value were 14% last year — the second-lowest level since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. Private equity firms already sold their best assets and now investors only want to commit money to vehicles that deliver net internal rates of return exceeding 20%. (Bloomberg)

The software sector accounted for roughly 18 per cent of US private equity deal value in 2025, according to PitchBook data. (Financial Times) 

But Blackstone is growing in the Middle East where it says the office could expand to become like Singapore, where it has 100 people. (Bloomberg)     

Working for the CFTC regulator has become a nightmare. Michael Selig, the chairman, ss doing the work of five commissioners and an uncountable number of departed staff. (FT) 

The FCA's workload is booming but its keeping headcount stable. (Financial News) 

IBM shares plummet after Anthropic said Claude can help modernize Cobol. (Bloomberg) 

A dystopian vision of the years to come. Beware the human intelligence displacement spiral. 'White-collar workers saw their earnings power (and, rationally, their spending) structurally impaired. Their incomes were the bedrock of the $13 trillion mortgage market - forcing underwriters to reassess whether prime mortgages are still money good.' (Citrini Research) 

49 year-old Joshua Easterley of Sixth Street is retiring as president and co-CIO after his father died. My father passed away a little over a year ago — somewhat unexpected and complicated for me.” Easterley has three daughters and wants “to fill any actual or perceived deficit I have with them. I want to start compounding and avoid any ‘drawdowns.’” (Bloomberg) 

BNP Paribas seemed to demand that New York staff attend the office despite the snow. (Litquidity) 

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