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JPMorgan's guide to the best and worst banking jobs of 2024

If you're wondering how best to survive and thrive in banking not only in 2024 but in 2025 and maybe even 2026, then JPMorgan's team of European banking analysts have assembled a series of charts that could guide you through the mists. 

The short answer seems to be that this is the time to work in either the investment banking division (M&A/equity capital markets/debt capital markets) broadly defined, or in fixed income currencies and commodities trading (equally broadly defined). And you might want to be at a big US bank.

The illuminatory JPMorgan charts are displayed below. Unfortunately, they don't include Citi or Bank of America, so it's not clear what JPMorgan's team thinks will be the outcome of Citi's restructuring. Nor do we have a view on the likely future for Jefferies or Santander. 

(If you can't see the charts on this article on mobile, then, sorry. There is a problem with the way we display charts on our mobile page view. They are visible in full on desktop)

Broadly, though, JPMorgan's team thinks 2024 is going to be a rebound year for investment banking division revenues, which it says should be up 32%. This is currently being driven by DCM revenues rather than ECM revenues or M&A deals (which are still looking miserable), so the recovery may not be broadly spread. And yet, if overall banking revenues return, then banking jobs might at the very least be spared further rounds of cuts. 

 

 In fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) trading, JPMorgan's analysts note that 2024 has begun more strongly for credit traders than for macro traders. This is partly because macro started strongly last year. Leveraged loans are also making a comeback. Banks like Deutsche Bank, which are skewed towards credit trading should benefit. Banks like BNP Paribas, which are skewed towards macro trading, presumably will not. Leveraged loan originators and traders are back in fashion everywhere.

 

JPMorgan's analysts suggest Goldman's fixed income traders might not do as well this year as their peers, although they don't elaborate on why. 

 

Equities traders are expected by JPMorgan to have a more enfeebled future. This is particularly the case at Barclays, where equities revenue growth is expected to dwindle to 1% by 2026 even as the sector grows twice as fast. 

JPMorgan's analysts are also bearish on Barclays' investment banking revenues, predicting a mere 13% growth this year compared to their expectation of 47% IBD revenue growth at Deutsche Bank.

Mostly, JPMorgan's banking analysis team are keen on Deutsche Bank and less keen on Barclays. While Deutsche Bank is well capitalized and its "franchise has come back strongly," they note that Barclays is cutting risk weighted assets allocated to its investment bank. Although this might be helpful to Barclays' share price, it might not be so great if you happen to work in its investment bank. 

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AUTHORSarah Butcher Global Editor

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